Celtic - A Squad Building Exercise

I have decided to re-write this. With the focus shifting back to squad development and tactical pragmatism. I will start with a summary of my first season and build up to where we are not with bi-annual season posts to follow.

2016/17 Season
As you will have seen from the previous thread we had a very successful season. I started by navigating the UCL qualifiers and putting out Hapoel Be'er Sheeva, Partizani and Rosenborg. A good run of domestic form followed including the 9-0 thumping of Rangers and lift the League Cup with a convincing 4-1 win over St. Johnstone in the final.

The UCL group stage got off to a terrible start for us. Back-to-back-to-back defeats left us bottom of the table with only 1 goal scored and 9 against. Incredibly in the games that followed we drew 2-2 with Juventus, hammered Spurs 7-1 and beat Leverkusen in Germany 3-1 to finish above them in 3rd place on the basis of goals scored. This was in the process of racking up a run of 17 games undefeated domestically. This was undone by a lack of planning and back luck as we faced Partick Thistle. A high defencive line, slow CB's and a good perforce from their keeper ended the run.

We then went another 15 games without a loss domestically until priorities took over. We had went on a great UEL run knocking out the likes of Club Brugge [3-1], Schalke [a4-4]. So when it came up to fixtures around the UEL quarter-final I rested the whole squad resulting in a loss before the first leg and a draw before the second. However it was worth it when we beat Fiorentina on aggregate 2-0 to reach the semi-final.

The remainder of the season we dropped just 2 points and lifted the Scottish Cup with a win over Hearts. In the UEL semi-final we came up against high-flying Athletic Bilbao. A ruling 180 minutes saw us take the tie 3-2 on aggregate thanks to a James Forrest equaliser in the home leg. In the final we lined up against Man Utd. I did my homework, got the tactics and line-up right (or so I thought). We were more that a match for the as we came back from 2-0 down at half time to take the match all the way to penalties.



Our luck ran out in the final. We came up against the side that would finish 3 points off the EPL title and we took them all the way to penalties. When you take everything into consideration we had a great season. We showed that we can make an impact in Europe and not just there to make up the numbers. Domestically we wrapped up the treble with ease. We won the Scottish Premiership by 18 points, with us scoring 92 goals along the way. It will be a tough season to top but a challenge I look forward to.





Transfers
I only made one signing during my first transfer window. Diego Poyet arrived on a free transfer but was quickly loaned out along wit a few other players to reduce the wage bill. Then came the January window and in come two new faces.

Julian Green joined from Bayern Munich meeting all signing criteria that I had set, and all at the bargain price of £950k. We needed an extra forward as I only had Leigh Griffiths and Moussa Dembele, the were both playing very well but the amount of fixtures coming up one injury could have caused problems. He could also offer cover on the left wing. As I lucked out getting in a quick CB - Rob Holding opted for Swansea and Jerry St. Juste was not for sale. I went down another route and brought in a FB who could cover CB for a fee of £3.8million - Linus Wahlqvist. This meant he or Mikel Lustig could cover CB when more pace is needed. Several players left the first team ranks notably Cristian Gamboa [£1.5 mil to Marseille], Nir Bitton [£3 mil to Marseille], Efe Ambrose and Kris Commons [free]. 

Tactical Philosophy
My tactical philosophy is based around pressing the opponent to dominate the match. Players must be able to pass the ball and work as a unit as we build from the back. I take each game as with the team set up as a 4411 by default and adjust player position/role as needed. I found this to be the best approach over the first season.

Training
Individual training runs in three cycles fitting in with the three sections off attributes:

1. Physical will run July – October (covering pre-season and the beginning of the season)
2. Technical training November – February
3. Mental attribute coaching March – May.

Players are trained in the more ‘standard’ roles. With the exception of a few midfielders as I need some playmakers. Each line-up will tend to have more ‘all purpose’ CM along with an AP or DLP. Defenders will likely be CB or FB, midfielders CM/BBM, wingers IF/W and strikers CF. Common stats I will be looking at are passing, stamina, technique and teamwork. As the will all be key to how we play. Obviously player position will dictate the level required, but in relation to position will be vital. I will tend to avoid players who lack in more than one of them or those who do not look like they can improve.

If they do not meet my standards they will be swiftly moved on. This method will be tedious and time consuming but ultimately worth it.

Club and Scouting Network
I will try to avoid the ‘All known players' and use the 'Scouted' tab as this just seems far more realistic. The exception to this rule will be transfer listed players and Bosman deals. Due to this I need a vast scouting network. We started with 25% world knowledge but with the addition on 9 scouts we now sit at 39%. I split this up into 5 phases and am now in the final phase.

1. Scotland, rUK and Ireland along with a Chief Scout being sent out on specific assignments.
2. Scandinavia and Central Europe
3. Eastern and Southern Europe
4. The Americas and the Caribbean
5. Africa/Asia/Oz

We also added FC Kaiserslautern to out list off affiliated clubs. I had a few options from England, Romania and Spain but the Germans seemed like the best option. I plan on using them the way Chelsea use Vittese to blood in players.

• 2.Bundesliga is playable so players send on loan will get opportunity to play
• The standard of the league is probably better than SPFL
• They have some talented youngsters in their side
• We get a foothold in German football

Squad Building Policy
I plan to build two 22 man squads - the first team and u20s - with allowance for 8 players I will send out on loan. We currently have 46 players at the club with 20 out on loan, we did have 69 and similar number out on loan. By the start of the 2018/19 season I plan on having it down to less than 60 in total. Once I reach the magic number I will operate a ‘one-in-one-out’ policy. Then I will try and minimise player turnover.

Transfer Policy
There is a set of criteria I tend to look at when it comes to singing players - with exceptions for special cases. Here the are in short:

• Age - most singings will be between the age of 18-24
• Player personality - they should have a 'positive' personality and/or good mental attributes [leadership, teamwork, work rate]
• Career appearances and caps/youth caps - Players with more of these tend to be more developed already and first team ready
• Will they improve the starting XI or bench?

Financial Control
The main factor of financial control for a Scottish Premiership club is wage budget control. I figured to stay in the red if were to fail to qualify for the the UCL we need out total wage budget to be spending less on wages than brought in through income from season tickets/gate receipts and sponsorship. With 42k+ season ticket holders and average attendances of 48k so far this season my estimation is over £23 million. My calculations were pretty spot on last season.

Here is how it looks at the start of the 2017/18 season. Once automatic qualification to the UCL groups is guaranteed through improving league coefficant we would be looking at well over £1 million available per week as our true wage budget.



Developing Scottish Football

• Avoid hovering up all of the Scotland’s best youth prospects and have them rotting in the u19 when they played 18 first teams games the previous season. Or just as bad singing 6 players 18-20 and loaning them to English league 2 sides. Instead focus on cherry picking the best and brightest, who can play a part in the first team or be loaned to another Scottish Premiership side with guaranteed first team football.
• Control the number of players in the squad, there is no sense in having an u20 squad of 50 players with only 10 of them having any chance of making it. This has a threefold negative effect; (a) it’s a drain on resources, (b) it limits playing time for more talented youth players and (c) they could be moved on and get game time. For players identified in this category there will be a four-step plan. Try to move on with sell on clause, try to move on for free, try to loan and finally release.
• Domestic teams will have first option on players for sale/loan. This will be on a case-by-case basis. For example I am not going to loan Aberdeen a striker who is capable of scoring 6/7 goals from January if they are only 6 points behind. However if they need him on a 6 month loan in August and are trying to qualify for the Europa League then definitely. For each of the lower divisions I will also focus on one side per season in terms of loans/frees in order to help them gain promotion.