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One of the most fascinating parts of Football Manager is discovering how much of the transfer market is shaped by AI logic rather than player choice. To test this, I ran a controlled experiment in Football Manager 26 to see which transfers consistently happen when the game is left entirely to its own devices.
The idea was simple. I wanted to find out which players the AI always seems to move, and which destinations the game clearly prefers for them.
How the Experiment Worked
I started five separate saves, all with the same database, leagues, and start date. In each save, I immediately went on holiday until the end of the summer transfer window. I was unemployed so I had no transfer involvement of any kind.
Once the window closed, I compared all five saves and tracked transfers that happened repeatedly. I only counted moves where the same player joined the same club.
In total, ten players stood out:
Transfers That Happened 5 Out of 5 Times
These were the most consistent moves in the entire experiment. In every single save, the AI completed these transfers without fail:
- 🇸🇰 Stanislav Lobotka from Napoli to Newcastle (£27M)
- 🇯🇵 Hidemasa Morita from Sporting CP to Napoli (£18.5M / £18.75M)
- 🇧🇪 Alexis Saelemaekers from AC Milan to PSG (£27.5M)
- 🇳🇱 Danilho Doekhi from Union Berlin to Bayer Leverkusen (£7M)
- 🇵🇹 Francisco Trincão from Sporting CP to Al-Ahli (£52M)
- 🇸🇪 Emil Krafth from Newcastle to Brighton (£4.7M / £7.75M)
- 🇮🇹 Marco Carnesecchi from Atalanta to Al-Hilal (£14M)
- 🏴 Ben Davies from Tottenham to Fiorentina (£7.25M)
- 🇪🇸 Eric Garcia from Barcelona to FC Bayern (£16.75M)
- 🇷🇸 Filip Kostić from Juventus to Rennes (£1.3M)
What This Shows About Football Manager 26
This experiment highlights just how pattern driven the transfer AI is in Football Manager 26. Clubs appear to have very clear ideas about:
- Positional priorities
- Squad role gaps
- Reputation thresholds
- Long term squad planning
While some randomness still exists, repeating the same simulation five times shows that certain transfers are extremely likely to happen unless the player actively interferes. Have you tried to steal those players and see what happens?
- Date Created
- 14 Jan 2026 17:55:08
- Date Updated
- 14 Jan 2026 17:55:08
- Last Comment
- 22 Jan 2026 13:49:14
Comments
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bengul
Just looked at these players in 2 of my saves, and only once of these transftransferser has had happhappeneden between the two of them, and that was Kostic to Rennes. Everyone else is either still at their starting club or has gone to a different team than the ones listed
Lebohang Mokoena
If any of these signings happen in real life, we can deduce that there are sporting directors who play a lot of FM. Or that they are an AI. Something that wouldn't surprise me at this point. 😁
_Sj
Eric Garcia to Bayern is always happening. No matter the FM