Lower League Collapse - Any Advice?

(Lengthy post warning as I'm trying to provide enough info for advice)
 

History:
I'm absolutely lost on FM24. I'm a veteran player since the Championship Manager days (though skipped since FM21). I've produced many game breaking tactics for the community over the decades that work in any leagues, but in FM24 I'm baffled.

My first ever game/team, Season 1 in Tier 11 of the English league, I created a tactic (Damian Diamond V1 - uploaded), built my team around it and absolutely dominated. W21, D2, L5, GF84, GA45.

Second Season we move to Tier 10 and more of the same. I'm halfway through the season, clear top of the league and had only lost 1 game. So when a Tier 7 team came in for me I jumped at it. I ran my tactic again and got off to a start of 4 straight wins and then suddenly it collapsed. I began losing or drawing and narrowly survived relegation on the last day.

Third Season I replace my weakest players, I tweak a few roles, I'm predicted 8th and we start hot with wins again. Then suddenly we're giving away penalties every single game out of nowhere that bring draws and losses in games we've dominated in shots, possession and xG. From here morale and atmosphere drops and I go 12 games with a win and get fired. I tried a couple of other tactics in the final 8 but it made no difference.

I join my third club back down in Tier 9. My original tactic is back in play with a few role tweaks (Damian Diamond V1.2 - uploaded) and despite being 19th, we dominate and smash the team who're 3rd. We drop a narrow loss to 2nd, then we smash the next team who're 3rd, narrow loss due to a penalty to 7th. Things are good… then suddenly they're not. I keep drawing and losing and am on a 9 game streak of this, many games I've dominated in all areas, others were just ridiculous like one I gave away THREE penalties in the first 14 minutes, yet still fought back to draw 3-3.

Issue:

The most glaring problem is that I just can't find what the issue is. The Data Hub says we're very good defensively, even better offensively and should walk over people. Breakdowns of our areas are all above average or better, but the only note is we seem to regularly get dominated in the first half (my 2nd team it was always a late collapse in the last 15-5 mins with the same tactic), but zero information on why or what is happening there. This happens regardless what tactic I'm playing. I feel because nobody ever remotely gets motivated or responds to the first team talk.

If I ask any advice of my assistant, he'll suggest stuff and then 2 days later contradicts his own advice and reverts back to what I was originally doing anyway.

There seems to be no clear cause beyond a few players just grossly underperforming every game, but I'm either unable to attract better ones or I get better ones and someone else just plays bad and costs us. 

Both of the clubs with this issue seem to suffer the GK and Back 4 regularly having 6.5's or below, this happens regardless where the line is, the tempo, the approach, the roles or what player I sign. 1-2 DM's make no difference. I tried a defensive, direct, ultra basic 4-3-3 dm wide counter tactic I built at half time (drew 2-2 after being 2-0 down at half time), next game I started it and was 3-0 down in 11 minutes to a team beneath me.

Any ideas? Anyone experience similar? It surely can't just be “get even better players” when mine are no worse than the rest of the league who're beating me. Open to suggestions of those more familiar with this engine. Thanks in advance.

Hi there,

             I have noticed that GK's and defenders receive relatively poor markings in FM24, unless they are involved in assisting goals, or actually scoring.  I have had central defenders and fullbacks keep a clean sheet, against good opposition, making decisive tackles and headed clearances, for them to receive a 6, or 6,5 rating.  I always watch the games on extended and show actually watch the performances of the players, and don't pay too much attention to the actual marks that they get. 

I also invariably don't listen to coaches advice etc …. unless it is glaringly obvious.  I have had coaches suggest language courses, when some players are fluent in that.  Saying that a key player should only be considered a fringe player, although they are a regular starter.  I think these are all little bugs in the game, which I would suggest you just ignore.  I have a demon formation, that works wonders for all the teams that I have managed across different leagues and nations, and found it to be 85-88% success rate (I have attached the tactic in case you want to try it out). 

I am sceptical whether changing to a more defensive formation once you go two goals up with 70 mins on the clock really does much.  As you say, I have seen many a late goal, and so with that in mind, always look at the fitness and energy levels of the players on the pitch.  Especially in your ‘wing back’ type positions, where they are up and down the wings regularly.

It is a tweak on Arsenal's current formation that Arteta employs.  Positive set up, but sometimes I switch to balanced if playing a good team away from home.

Yeah that does seem to be the case with the back four in particular. I've seen maybe one 7+ that wasn't due to a goal or assist lol.

I noticed the media always ask why I play the way I do, despite it being the most successful the clubs have been over the last 8 or so tactics with or before me. My second club Basingstoke ended up demanding we change, which resulted in worse performances and getting fired. 

Will give your tactic a look, thanks!