Randomness of simulation: the test

Fantastic

15 years ago

2 years ago

2,496

Banned

03 May 2014 14:47:22

So as discussed I will be taking over as manage of Newcastle and replaying every league match ten times each to. I will record each result individually and then score the average result (in points) to gauge the variance.

https://sortitoutsi.net/uploads/mirrored_images/mtc1kPmiGhL1L1hhxUahLQcqpIZzS7gLKVDXCQ11.png

There are some concerns that have arisen:

When moving on to the next game which result do I use going forward: the average result (win/loss/draw) or do I go truly random and use the tenth result? I think it's best to go forward using the average result because that will more than likely save me from any potential sacking. I'll have four saves running:

Randomsim - just the general save for the main game
Rsimwin
Rsimdraw
Rsimloss

I'll use the latter three as holding games for potentially moving forward. One thing I will try to do is to use the average result that has the least injuries, again to try and lessen the effects of outside circumstances and focus the game purely on each random encounter.

Finally, I will not be signing any players, I will not be taking charge of any press conferences, I will not be managing any games. I will holiday every game, I do not want to influence the game in any way, just observe the results. This will also serve to make the game move much faster.

I'll update this thread every time a ten game sequence has been completed.

Fantastic

15 years ago

2 years ago

2,496

Banned

03 May 2014 15:37:32

First set done:

https://sortitoutsi.net/uploads/mirrored_images/IWhkYZvZrJo3K9gbF4p1MLgFVYiQrXSJsqP7NOO0.png

A small thing has come up, which result to use going forward if it is equal? I think it's fairest to just flip a coin and go from there. If there are any coin flips I'll record those as well.

Fantastic

15 years ago

2 years ago

2,496

Banned

03 May 2014 15:54:48

https://sortitoutsi.net/uploads/mirrored_images/iPpR8fRHilcwjNXg85ANKOgWH0aIlv9ZJxFv5Kuv.png

No deviation there.

Fantastic

15 years ago

2 years ago

2,496

Banned

03 May 2014 16:11:15

https://sortitoutsi.net/uploads/mirrored_images/lU6uWHlMAdUxxPtBig8Hy2FGfqSpeYqPnquhVqOE.png

I'm leaving in ten minutes, I'll see if I can squeeze one more out.

Fantastic

15 years ago

2 years ago

2,496

Banned

03 May 2014 16:33:30

https://sortitoutsi.net/uploads/mirrored_images/jldnddpLobpcRnDw70mmCksweB8VyJeSkQ8SeiiN.png

Final one, I'm done for the day.

Sheriff Skacel

12 years ago

2 years ago

940

03 May 2014 16:46:53

I find that Chelsea one very interesting, much fluctuation in scores in those games?

Fantastic

15 years ago

2 years ago

2,496

Banned

03 May 2014 23:33:13

By Sheriff Skacel | On 03 May 2014 - 16:46 PM

I find that Chelsea one very interesting, much fluctuation in scores in those games?

A couple were close, garnering the "Chelsea lucky etc" match report, and a few were 3-0, 4-0s. I was quite surprised that there was no draw or win, maybe that says more about Chelsea than it does about Newcastle.