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#162201 The randomness of simulation: a test
Fantastic
That rant is relevant for the topic I want to discuss today (and test): how far reaching is the randomness of such a complex simulation?
To make it easier to understand I'll analogise it: how many times in our careers have we been unable to pinpoint why we don't win, why we're not getting results against supposedly inferior opposition? Far too often to test our sanity. The genetic makeup of Football Manger (and football itself) is that on any given day any team can beat any other team. It's why we have examples of ridiculously underpowered teams toppling top flight opposition. It's part and parcel of what makes this sport exciting for people.
This is inspired by me losing to a team far worse than I am and not understanding why. I lost, yet the week before I beat a team far better than I am. I'm confident the players I have are good enough, the tactics (as basic as they are) are good, the players I'm using are motivated... so why did I lose? Is it random, is it design, is it logic?
So what I'm proposing is embracing something that people have been doing for eons: a test that takes into account saving and reloading.I want to take over as manager of a team in the Premier League and just use one season as the empirical evidence. But what I will do is take a decent tactic, nominated by the members here, and play every game during the season ten times each. So at the end I will have played 380 matches. Then using the magic of maths I can work out the absolute worst season-length points tally I could have, the best, and the average. Just to give a little insight into this game just being a series of interspersing moments can affect the overall outcome.
So what I need from you guys is a team you think it would be worthwhile to test this out with (hint: not one that is going to win 75% of games) and a tactic that people consider to be solid. Of course any other suggestions/comments are greatly appreciated.
#162044 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
Semi-final draw of the French cup. Nancy Lorraine are a newly promoted side so if we beat them we'll have a final against a Ligue 2 side. With that and our Coupe de la Ligue final coming up this could be a very interesting season. I'll be unavailable in a few hours until tomorrow so we'll see how far I can go in ~1hr.
#162042 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
The Adalberto deal is a bit of a shock because his price is so low compared to what I was originally quoted a year ago. But Karim Sassi isn't. I scouted him over five years ago and went head to head unsuccessfully (surprise surprise) with Barcelona. But he's been sitting there since then doing nothing because he hasn't been able to break into their first team. €5,500,000 is cheap for a player of his calibre, but for a player who never plays it really isn't that much. His face value at the time was €6,000,000
As for where I'm finding them, I have enough scouts roaming the world, repping my brand, getting the word out. These are only the players I do sign, I'm sure you can appreciate how many hundreds I go through before I get the ones I think will be worth it.
#161667 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
Lyon in the final.
#161661 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
I actually tried to sign Sassi five years ago for approximately €850,000 but Barcelona beat me to the punch. He's barely played for them at all, I think six fist team games and a bunch doing fuck all for their B team, but he's perfect cover for the injury prone Cezero (who I may have to ship out if injuries become to much of a problem) and I think the agreed fee of €5,500,000 is a good price for us if we do decide to go through with the purchase at the end of the season.
This was a surprise move. I already have an excellent goalkeeper in Gierszweski who has been my first choice since he was 17 and has become a great player. However Adalberto is a player I scouted a year or two ago who I tried to buy originally and was quoted a price of €21,000,000 which was just ludicrous. So when I saw that Sao Paulo had made a bid for him at €97,000 I felt I was obligated to buy him because obtaining someone that good at that low a price is just stupid. I went in €235,000 (his value) and tied it up quick before Dortmund or some other funcunt gets in the way. However this does leave me with a quandary:
I'm heavily invested in his growth. I know Adalberto is probably better but I just like Gierszweski more. Hopefully an injury will help solve this problem for me.
#161658 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
Doing incredibly well this season. If we keep moving in this trajectory we're in with a chance to make it into Europe. I might have to make a decision on whether to bring a player in, be it full time or on loan, in order to give us a more complete squad look, but whether I do or not it's great to see that we're building upon the great work we put in last season.
#161657 Bullying
Fantastic
#161653 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
The signings I made a strong replacements and I think they make us a better side than we were before. I'm looking to improve on tenth this season and I think that's achievable.
#161652 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
#161651 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
Ten goals in twenty five games since he signed, but he's been injured for three months this season which is a shame.
He was dirt cheap because I was going to bring him in on a free but decided to pay the small cost to have him in sooner.
#161369 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
Very pleased with this season. There's definitely a strong foundation going forward. Ideally I'd like to get taken over so a new stadium can be built, we're simply not turning over enough money to sustain a leading club in this division. That's something that will take time, but as it stands we're on the ascendancy and it's a good time to be a fan of Sporting Toulon Var.
#161300 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
Good. Fucking. Riddance. Shit player, delighted to have that goal shy cancer away from the team. And I'm very pleased with the players I've brought in to replace him. This has been an incredible January transfer window.
#161291 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
It's time to say goodbye.
#161265 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
Tawamba (free) and Diabate (€1.6m) are the most first team ready players, whereas Clarke (free) and Diakhate (€4m) are longer term projects who could pan out to be excellent players. Bottom line in all this though is that they are on pittance wages. I've already resolved to burn the bridge with Sergi Samper and I'll look at anyone on high wages to see what they're really worth.
#161257 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
That looks like an improvement and it probably is, but we've been playing like shit recently, dropping down from eighth. One loss was 2-1 against Sedan, with them winning in the final five minutes. Really shitty football. I think it might be because my paper thin squad might be a little bit stretched so I'm going to bring in some wing and central midfield cover. Backhouse has been starting up front due to a Casiraghi injury and I think I might look to move Caisraghi out. Despite his eighteen in finishing he's a bag of shit and just not useful as a lone striker.
#161216 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
Huge sale of Camara to Real Madrid. I originally had his minimum release set at €35,000,000 but I was able to negotiate up to €42,000,000. That gave me some freedom in the transfer market, except for the fact the sale took place on 27th of August so the players I brought in after that (Samper and Augusto) were a little rushed but still worthwhile. Fernandez is a bit of a project, particularly in the mental department, but he has some good technical attributes.
The board is not being as lenient with me any more, they've said they expect a mid-table finish as a minimum. With the loss of a rock like Camara I'd be surprised, but I think somewhere around 14th is not unachievable.
I've changed my tactics to accommodate the loss of Camara, gone is the DMC spot he occupied and that's been pushed up into an AMC role which Novais will perform in. My logic is that this will alleviate some of our goalscoring problems while still keeping the same strong team shape that's been difficult to break down in the past.
This could be a defining season otherwise I might have to start selling off some more assets in order to bring in a younger, cheaper generation. Players like Samper on €52,000pw are not sustainable on our income. If we can move into the top half then I can think about gambling for some European football, but until then I have to be cautious.
#161206 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
Casillas is just a coach because his coaching attributes are good enough to slot in elsewhere. I think he covers strength or something, I don't know I let Trezeguet handle coaching assignments.
Tall has had a decent career. He floated in and out of the Bordeaux first team until recently when he played 26 games for Bordeaux in Ligue 1 last season. This season he's gone out on loan to Guingamp (also in Ligue 1). He'll probably float around the middle part of Ligue 1 for a while.
Arcelin has been in the reserves for Lyon forever, save for a brief period a few years ago when he played two games for the first team. He didn't really pan out into a Ligue 1 capable player.
#161077 The NBA Thread
Fantastic
He's been tremendous from the stripe this series, he's like 5/6 tonight alone. Harden playing like dog shit as usual, luckily he's not forcing the issue, but he's just getting worked on defence over and over.
#160995 The NBA Thread
Fantastic
They've been getting savaged by LaMarcus Aldridge because their starting power forward Terrence Jones is undersized and not a great defender. Plus LA is mental at midrange high-arcing shots. And James Harden has been appalling, shooting >30% in the first two games. But they managed to sneak game three on a lucky Troy Daniels three in OT. Game four is tonight and it's huge, following the Rockets has me tearing out my hair but when they hit the right notes they're beautiful to watch.
#160750 The NBA Thread
Fantastic
#160742 The Night Thread Mk. IX
Fantastic
#160683 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
I may not be producing much on the pitch, but I do have the most next level goalkeeping coaching in the world.
#160644 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
Defence has improved but now we can't score goals. Extremely frustrating, but when I have three midfield players as dominant as Camara, Novais and Kulikov it's a waste to not have them all play. I might have to sell one of them in the summer, which would be a big ask because they're all great players. I'm going to try Casiraghi and Backhouse together, I need to create more goalscoring opportunities because at the moment we're just not making any progress.
#160628 Livestreaming FM14 all night!
Fantastic
#160559 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
Forgot to do my signings and what not.
#160331 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
Legitimately shocking. Shame we're only 15th in the league...
#160131 The Night Thread Mk. IX
Fantastic
Zero cravings and no interest in trying it again. And I smoke a couple of rocks too. I'd imagine the purity is toned down a great amount given the distance it's had to travel to get here but it didn't strike me as something particularly pleasant, not to mention the social stigma of smoking meth would rapidly preclude me from most gatherings.
2/10
#160130 Rob...
Fantastic
#159931 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
Good season. Stayed up safely and I think we can move on and try to reach mid-table next season. I've still got defensive problems but hopefully that can be sorted out post season.
I'm bored of writing so I'm going to stop now.
#159926 Sporting Toulon Var - a shit club in the Cote d'Azur [FM14]
Fantastic
Pretty shit final, but they didn't miss a single spot kick which is lame.